Unfortunately, the situation with the Carbon API isn't quite clear.
Basically, it is a deprecated API that dates back to 1998. Its aim was to facilitate the transition from classical Mac OS to Mac OS X. The native API Cocoa was and is preferred by Apple, and with the introduction of Mac OS X 10.8 (Mountain Lion) Carbon was deprecated. However, the Carbon APIs are still accessible to developers and, as it is currently understood, all Carbon applications will run even in future, but the APIs will no longer be updated. Interestingly, Apple made Carbon also available on iOS, although there wasn't a need for porting applications from classical Mac OS.
If you don't use too much OS-dependent code you will be fine with the abstract LCL-based API offered by Lazarus. The Cocoa widget set is getting better and better and it received considerable extensions in the recent past. Therefore I expect it to be easy to switch the widgetset once Cocoa is sufficiently supported. Certain small applications already run fine with the Cocoa widgetset.