"I think people that buy Windows S are then not really interested in custom software anyway. It is to counter the ChromeBook concept, but then with actualy storage and (some) offline capabilities"
I think it's too early to say. For one thing right now this sounds mostly limited to schools, but it's possible Microsoft might offer it for free or very cheap to OEMs in which case it might become predominate.
Agree, I based that remark about the markets they are now going after (the US educational market mostly). But that can change.
Still, I don't really expect domination, but even if it is somewhat a hit in say, education and convertible (tablet+keyboard) market, I think it will remain just a another (and minority) tablet platform, and the dragged-by-the-hairs Windows desktop connection won't really have much effect on the core windows software market.
IOW, Windows S success is not automatically UWP is the next big thing on Windows.
The other thing is apparently MS has said that people will be able to upgrade to full Windows 10 for $0-$50 (I gather right now it's $0 but may change) so, assuming whatever they bought is powerful enough, I guess there will be a way for people to get out of the walled garden if motivated.
True, but that is full windows and win32/win64 again.
But if MS does this it might push Windows 10 to a dominate position with the 10 S leading with the most users, though none of this would happen overnight, I expect win32/64 to be around for a good while yet. Certainly this seems to be the direction MS is hoping for...though there are a lot of "mights" in there.
You can never rule out something strange and unexpected will happen (just talk to people in the late nineties that Apple will be the biggest IT corp ). But for now, as I say above, it will be mostly yet another tablet and convertible, and that even if if it doesn't fail miserably. (which is also an option)
If it is a minor success, it will be interesting what MS next steps are, if they can truly lift the UWP platform from tablet limitations into something more usable for a wider set of application types.
Only then it makes sense to talk about some of that crossing over to the wider PC market.
As to those who think desktops are in decline, people keep saying that, but they never do, what is true is that people hang on to them a lot longer as advancements in processors etc. haven't been more than incremental for years now.
Well, it is not just hardware sales. Developer focus was mobile oriented for a while too. Though that seems more consolidated now, with a few big players getting the big bucks, and I get the feeling that many small devels had a shot at the mobile biz, and are now back.
The idea that every butcher must have his own app to stay relevant has been put to rest. Luckily.